DE's Earnings Track Record: Perfect Beat Rate, Flat Follow-Through
Over the last eight reported quarters, Deere & Company (DE) has beaten the consensus EPS estimate every time, for a 100% beat rate. The average earnings surprise across those quarters is 11.5%. Yet the average five-day price change after earnings over the same period is 0.02%, classified as flat. That combination tells us DE has exceeded estimates in all eight quarters by a wide margin, but the price adjustment tends to come before the release, not after it.
Look at the last four reports. On 2026-05-21, DE reported $6.55 versus a $5.70 estimate (14.9% surprise), and the next day the stock fell 0.41%, though it rose 2.04% over the next five sessions. On 2026-02-19, the company posted $2.42 versus $2.02 (19.8% surprise), but the stock gained just 0.07% the next day and then dropped 6.43% over five days. The November 2025 beat of $3.93 versus $3.84 (2.3%) was followed by a 1.14% next-day decline and a 2.80% five-day gain, while the August 2025 report of $4.75 versus $4.57 (3.9%) produced a 2.08% next-day gain and a 1.65% five-day gain.
Options-Flow Picture Around the August 20 Report
DE's next scheduled earnings release is August 20, 2026, before the market opens, with the consensus EPS estimate at $4.71. Because the historical beat rate is 100%, the options market has reason to price in a high probability of another beat. That does not predict direction; it means both puts and calls ahead of the event can carry an elevated volatility premium.
The cleanest way to read flow is to compare the implied move priced into the nearest-dated at-the-money straddle against the realized next-day moves from the last four reports: -0.41%, 0.07%, -1.14%, and 2.08%. If the straddle is priced for a much larger move than that range, sellers may be capturing overpricing; if it looks cheap relative to the 11.5% average surprise, buyers may be underpricing event risk. With the stock at $592.67, sitting just below the 50-day EMA at $596.30 and an RSI of 46.3, the technical setup is neutral rather than directional.
What a Disciplined Trader Watches
The key pattern is the separation between surprise and drift. With an average five-day post-earnings drift of 0.02%, the data does not support assuming trend continuation after the report. Watch the pre-market range, the opening five-minute volume profile after the 8:20 a.m. ET release, and the $596.30 50-day EMA level, which is about 0.6% above the current price.
Also compare the upcoming $4.71 estimate with guidance and machinery-demand commentary. Another beat is the historical base case, but the real question is whether the release resets the price away from $592.67 or simply fills an already priced-in expectation. For a deeper dive, look at the full institutional verdict and the latest sell-side estimate revisions.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is DE's historical earnings beat rate and average surprise?
Over the last eight reported quarters, DE has beaten consensus EPS every time, for a 100% beat rate. The average earnings surprise across those quarters is 11.5%.
How has DE stock typically moved after recent earnings reports?
Despite consistent beats, price reactions have been mixed. The average 5-day post-earnings drift across the last eight quarters is 0.02% (flat). The most recent four 5-day moves were +2.04% (May 2026), -6.43% (February 2026), +2.80% (November 2025), and +1.65% (August 2025).
When is DE reporting next and what is the consensus estimate?
DE is scheduled to report on August 20, 2026, before the market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $4.71.
| Reported | Actual | Estimate | Surprise | 1D Move | 5D Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | $6.55 | $5.7 | +14.9% | -0.41% | +2.04% |
| 2026-02-19 | $2.42 | $2.02 | +19.8% | +0.07% | -6.43% |
| 2025-11-26 | $3.93 | $3.84 | +2.3% | -1.14% | +2.8% |
| 2025-08-14 | $4.75 | $4.57 | +3.9% | +2.08% | +1.65% |
| 2025-05-15 | $6.64 | $5.56 | +19.4% | - | - |
| 2025-02-13 | $3.19 | $3.11 | +2.6% | - | - |
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